PATA releases Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2002-2004

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) is pleased to announce the release of Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2002-2004, which predicts the level of international arrivals to destinations within the Pacific Asia region.

The study was prepared by two of the world's foremost practitioners of the art of econometric modelling of tourism demand, professors Lindsay W. Turner and Stephen F. Witt. Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2002-2004 looks at visitor arrivals by country of origin for 36 destinations, tourism receipts for 14 countries and outbound travel for eight origin markets within Pacific Asia.

Arrivals for the 36 destinations covered have been derived from known values as of 2000 and include the significant effects of 2001, including the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. From a known base of 191.6 million arrivals for these destinations in 2000, traffic is expected to increase by 4.8 percent per annum to 2004 when it will reach a volume of 231.2 million international arrivals.

Northeast Asia with a projected growth rate of 5.77 percent per annum, will drive much of this increase and account for around 64 percent of the total volume in this grouping of destinations by 2004. China (PRC) is the dominant market within that sub-region and is expected to break the 100 million arrivals mark in 2003. With arrivals for the first six months of 2002 at almost 47 million, that prediction appears to be right on track.

Macau SAR, Hong Kong SAR, Chinese Taipei and Mongolia also add to a strong Northeast Asia performance with arrivals to those destinations expected to grow at greater than the overall rate of 4.8 percent per annum to 2004.

Within Southeast Asia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam are all forecast to perform better than the aggregate average over the period. In the Pacific, Fiji, the Cook Islands and Vanuatu are all stronger than average in their projected growth rates to 2004.

Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2002-2004 costs US$350 for PATA members and US$499 for PATA chapters and non-members.