YEAR-END ARRIVALS GROWTH NOW FORECAST TO SURPASS 4%

Growth in visitor arrivals is now expected to be around 4.8% for the full year, the Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) said today – a significant improvement on the situation in late September, when a revised forecast of zero growth was made in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the United States.

This follows a further encouraging performance in November, when despite continuing difficult conditions in the tourism industry worldwide, visitor arrivals in Hong Kong reached 1,141,992, a 2.1% increase on the same month in 2000. As in the previous month, exceptionally high growth in the number of Mainland China visitors, which jumped 33.4% in November, offset falls in other main markets.

Total arrivals for the year have now reached 12,420,147 – a 5.0% increase on the first 11 months of 2000 – making it likely that the full-year total will be close to 13.7 million.

Noting that this was a far better result than anticipated two months ago, the HKTB’s Executive Director Clara Chong said that the growth in Mainland visitors during the second half of 2001 had exceeded all expectations. “It is especially encouraging that these increases are being seen before most of the recently announced visa relaxation measures have come into effect,” she said. “We can expect to see further strong growth early next year when they do.”

Despite this, Ms Chong warned, Hong Kong’s tourism industry faced strong challenges in the year ahead. “Most of our other source markets are still suffering from the aftermath of 11 September, and it will take time and patience to rebuild them,” she observed. “We cannot rely solely on the Mainland because it is essential that Hong Kong, as an international city, achieves a balanced portfolio of visitors.”

The figures released by HKTB today show that apart from Mainland China, all other markets showed a year-on-year decline in November. Arrivals from North Asia registered the sharpest fall, dipping 18.2%, followed by The Americas (–17.8%), Australia, New Zealand & South Pacific (–16.3%), Europe, Africa & the Middle East (–13.5%), South & Southeast Asia (–4.2%) and Taiwan (–2.3%).

Individually, however, arrivals from a few countries showed positive growth, notably the Philippines (+27.2%), Indonesia (+11.6%), India (+10.2%) and South Korea (+8.4%). In the case of the Phillippines and Indonesia, these figures partly reflect a low comparison base for November 2000; India and South Korea, on the other hand, have been registering steady growth all this year.

For the first 11 months of 2001, arrivals from Mainland China are showing year-on-year growth of 16.3%, Taiwan 1.8% growth and North Asia an increase of 1.2%. All other markets are registering negative growth of between –1.0% and –6.9%.

Hotel Occupancy

Average hotel occupancy across all categories in November – traditionally one of the busiest months for Hong Kong’s hotel industry – improved to 81%, compared with 76% in October and 89% for November 2000. For the year to date, average occupancy of 78% has been achieved, compared with 83% for January to November 2000. In the intervening period, the daily number of rooms available for sale has increased by 2.1%.

Top grade (High Tariff A) hotels continue to be experiencing the most difficult conditions, registering 75% occupancy in November compared with 90% in the same month last year.

In contrast, medium tariff hotels achieved 86% occupancy, a marginal decrease from the 88% registered the previous year. Hotels on Hong Kong Island outside the main tourist areas of Central, Wan Chai and Causeway Bay performed especially well, recording average occupancy of 90% in November.

Same-Day Visitors

During November, 64.3% of visitors stayed for one night or longer, compared with 67.2% in November 2000. For the year to date, the figure is 64.4% (2000: 67.4%). Taiwan visitors remain the shortest stayers, with only 22.6% staying overnight in November. In contrast, 82.1% of all visitors from The Americas, 79.7% from South & Southeast Asia and 79.6% from Australia, New Zealand & South Pacific did so.