GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IMPACT INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVAL FORECASTS

New forecasts released today by the Tourism Forecasting Council (TFC) indicate slower growth in international visitors to Australia this year with a 4.5 per cent growth in arrivals expected for 2001, Australian Tourist Commission (ATC) Managing Director, Ken Boundy said.

“The revision of forecasts for 2001 and 2002 was expected given the changes in global economic conditions impacting on travel trends to Australia,” Mr Boundy said.

“At the beginning of the year international visitor arrivals were forecast to grow by around eight per cent, however today’s figures indicate that growth in inbound arrivals has slowed, and will reach 4.5 per cent.

“The softer growth is a direct result of the shift in global economic conditions since late 2000, particularly in the US and weaker conditions in Japan which impacts on consumer confidence and their propensity to travel abroad, particularly to long haul destinations.

“In addition, the economic slowdown and political uncertainty in a few Asian economies has impacted on outbound travel from the region and this will continue for the second half of the year.

“Despite the global economic slowdown, Australia’s inbound tourism will continue to grow at a rate greater than Australia’s economy as a whole.

“The forecasts indicate a record 5.2 million international visitors to Australia in 2001 - an increase of 220,000 international visitors on 2000, generating an additional $676 million in export earnings to a total of around $17 billion in 2001.

“The long term prospects for Australia’s inbound tourism industry remain strong with the number of international visitors to Australia expected to double to nearly 10 million by 2010.

“Short term, Australia’s inbound tourism industry has taken a “blow” from the changing global economic climate, however mid to long term prospects for the industry are strong and will ensure that tourism maintains its mantel as one of Australia’s most important export industries.”

Mr Boundy said that while these factors were beyond the control of the industry it was essential to be proactive to drive growth in visitor arrivals from key tourism markets.

“In response to the changing global marketplace the ATC has strengthened its focus on conversion programs through the greater use of tactical campaigns which aim to convert Australia’s high profile overseas into actual holiday bookings,” he said.

Mr Boundy said the forecasts indicate slower growth in several key tourism markets including the US, Japan and New Zealand in the short term, with improved growth forecasts in the medium to long term.

“Visitor arrivals from the US grew strongly during 2000 as a result of the Olympic exposure, however the economic downturn late last year in the US has resulted in a slowdown in outbound travel and modest growth in visitor arrivals to Australia,” he said.

“Similarly visitor arrivals from New Zealand grew by a massive 12.7 per cent in 2000, however double digit growth of this nature can not be sustained. Today’s forecasts indicate a decline in visitor arrivals this year, followed by steady growth until 2010.

“The forecasts indicate mixed forecasts for visitor arrivals from Asia reflecting the differing economic difficulties across the region. Overall visitor arrivals from the region are expected to grow by 7.1 per cent this year to reach over 1.3 million visitors.

“The Asian region includes some of Australia’s best performing markets including China which is expected to grow by an annual average of 24.1 per cent each year until 2010.

“Japanese visitor arrivals are expected to grow by 1.5 per cent this year due to the continued weakening of the Japanese economy. However, the introduction of new Qantas air services from Osaka to Australia later this year combined with increased ATC marketing will help increase Japanese inbound travel to Australia.

“Europe continues to be one of Australia’s strongest tourism regions with visitor arrivals forecast to reach a record 1.3 million in 2001, up 9.7 per cent on 2000. Australia’s increase profile following the Olympic Games, solid economic conditions in our key European markets and the range of value for money holiday packages will help to drive growth in visitors from the region.”