IATA MOST BULLISH PASSENGER/CARGO MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THREE YEARS

IATA's latest Passenger and Freight forecasts, covering the period 2000-2004, indicate the highest level of optimism within the airline industry about traffic growth for three years. This optimism is driven by general world economic growth trends.

The predicted Annual Average Growth Rate (AAGR) for total scheduled international passenger traffic is 5.6 %. That rate implies that the number of passengers on international scheduled services will rise by over 150 million during the five year forecast period to a 2004 level of 643.1 million.

The forecast AAGR for total international scheduled freight traffic is 6.7%. At that rate, air freight volume would rise by 6.6 million tonnes, to 23.8 million tonnes in 2004.

Asia is central to this rebound in both markets, with growth of the newly industrialised economies back to mid-1990s levels and Japan predicted to recover slowly over the next two years. The outlook has also been boosted by signs of economic recovery in South America.

IATA's Annual Passenger and Freight Forecasts are derived from IATA's annual survey of the world's major airlines, airports and civil aviation authorities. These reports represent the consensus opinion of the aviation industry's leading forecasting and strategic planning experts and provide informed commentary on the current and future development of the global passenger market. The reports are published in two parts. The full colour Executive Summary provides the analyst with the key topline trends at a global, regional and country level. The second part provides the detailed growth tables. Both parts of the report are also available electronically.