Singapore Visitor Arrivals Increase January 2004

Singapore welcomed 651,229 visitors in January 2004. This figure represents a rise of 1% compared to the same period a year ago.

This modest - yet important - increase in January marks the second time that visitor arrival figures registered positive year-on-year (y-o-y) growth since March 2003. The first instance was recorded in November 2003, when visitor arrivals grew a healthy 8% over the previous year. Such positive y-o-y growth reflects the steady recovery of Singapore's tourism sector.

Holiday arrivals in January increased by 5% over the previous year. The increase was made possible by strong double-digit growth in holiday arrivals from Hong Kong (+69%), Thailand (+35%), China (+29%), Taiwan (+21%), India (+19%), Malaysia (+16%) and Indonesia (+14%).

Business-related arrivals, however, posted a y-o-y decline of 18% in January, with countries such as Thailand (-13%), Hong Kong (-13%) and India (-14%) registering lower-than-average declines. China bucked the trend to record a 14% increase in business-related arrivals, a development that was likely a result of the Chinese New Year holiday.

Country Performance

Indonesia, China and Australia were Singapore's top-three markets in January 2004, accounting for 41% of the total number of visitors for the month.

Arrivals from Hong Kong (+31%), China (+28%) and Thailand (+11%) recorded impressive double-digit growth. Such y-o-y growth may be attributed to the increased traffic that is typically seen during the Chinese New Year holiday period, which fell in January this year.

The Greater China region exhibited strong growth in January, with arrivals from Hong Kong (+31%) and China (+28%) registering significant double-digit increases. These impressive figures may be attributed to a shift in the Chinese New Year holiday, which fell in January this year instead of February, as was the case last year. Robust holiday arrival figures from Hong Kong (69%) and China (29%) support this observation.

The strong January growth was also partly driven by in-market promotions and campaigns, which leveraged on the Chinese New Year celebrations in Singapore to attract "Golden Week" holidaymakers in China. In addition, the number of first-time and repeat visitors from China increased 25% and 44%, respectively. Holiday arrivals on group-package tours also rose 32%.

The number of visitors from Indonesia grew by 9% in January. This increase may be attributed to the shift in the Chinese New Year holiday, in-market promotions of the Chinese New Year celebrations in Singapore, and extended Singapore Roars! promotions toward the end of 2003.

Indonesian budget carrier Lion Air also launched a competitively priced package for travel into Singapore (US$99 for airfare, US$1 for hotel stay), which helped boost arrival figures. The number of repeat visitors and those on non-group package tours also rose 7% and 21%, respectively.

The rise in Thai visitor arrival figures (+11%) may also be attributed to the spill-over momentum from the year-end Singapore Roars! promotions in 2003. The promotions also resulted in an increase in the number of first-time (+23%) and repeat (+7%) visitors from Thailand.

Visitor arrivals from Japan (-26%) and Korea (-14%) remained sluggish in January. The decline in Korean arrivals may be indirectly attributed to the reported cases of Bird Flu in Asia; reports indicated that there were cancellations of tour packages twinning Singapore with Thailand and Malaysia, negatively impacting arrival figures. As a result, group-package arrival figures from Japan (-40%) and Korea (-20%) remained depressed in January.

Arrivals from the USA remained sluggish, with declines in holiday (-8%) and business-related (-21%) arrivals. The declines may be attributed in part to negative publicity surrounding the Bird Flu outbreak in Asia. Uncertainty and fear of another SARS outbreak in the region may have also caused some to defer their travel plans. Such worries impacted repeat visits (-8%) and non-group package arrivals (-13%) in January.

Hotel Industry Performance

Hotels saw overall declines in occupancy and takings in January. The average occupancy rate (AOR) for January 2004 declined by 2 percentage points on a y-o-y basis to 69%. In addition, average room rate (ARR) reached S$113, representing a y-o-y decline of 7%.

Total room revenue for the month is estimated at S$68 million, indicating a decline of 11% compared to the same period a year ago.

See also: Singapore's visitor arrivals figures for November 2003