COVID19: Zero Risk and Travel Advisories - Where Do We Stop?

With so much global concern and uncertainty about the COVID19 outbreak, many airlines around the world have either cancelled all their flights to China, or cut some and reduced others.

This is mainly due to a lack of demand for those flights, and allows airlines to use the aircraft on routes where they are most needed.

Some countries have taken their response a step further and issued travel advisories or simply banned anyone from entering their country if that person has visited an ever-growing list of cities and countries - mainly within South East Asia - within the past 14 days, or so.

This in itself causes confusion and concern amongst travellers, as they are unsure whether the current regulations could change while they are en-route, away, or even as they head home.

In its update of 17 February 2020, the UK government, for example, is advising "anyone who has travelled to the UK from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau in the last 14 days and is experiencing cough or fever or shortness of breath, to stay indoors and call NHS 111, even if symptoms are mild. These areas have been identified because of the volume of air travel from affected areas, understanding of other travel routes and number of reported cases".

Most airlines have been very fair with their cancellation policies, allowing travellers to change dates or get full refunds, but with so many options available to travellers today, simply cancelling one part of a journey may not be enough.

One lady I spoke to in north Wales recently, has a trip of a lifetime planned for April to Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore. Her journey involves numerous modes of transport and different hotels in many cities within those countries. According to her, Emirates airline has been extremely supportive and flexible, others less so. Not being able to get some of the trip cancelled or refunded is of course a concern, but so is the developing situation and worry over what could change with regards to the possibility of being quarantined at any stage during the journey, or on her return. And then of course, there's the question of travel insurance.

The World Health Organisation holds a press conference to update global media about the COVID19 outbreak on an almost daily basis. It is best place to get the most accurate picture of what is happening, how the situation is developing and where it could all be heading.

On Monday, one journalist called in to the press conference to ask about travel advisories and whether cruises should steer clear of areas affected by the virus, in particular Asia.

In response, Dr. Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, said, "We have a group of people saying that we should steer clear of cruise ships, or steer clear of airports, or steer clear of certain ethnic groups, and steer clear of oth ... There's zero risk, in the world, for anything, but Sylvie mentioned is we need an approach in place to manage risk that allows us to continue to operate as a society while minimizing the risks that we know about. And that doesn't matter if we are talking about travel, or meetings, it doesn't matter if we're talking about cruise ships ... This is a very serious outbreak, and it has the potential to grow, but we need to balance that in terms of the number of people infected. Outside of Hubei, this epidemic is infecting a very tiny, tiny, tiny proportion of people. So if we're going to disrupt every cruise ship in the world on the off chance that there might be some potential contact with some potential pathogen, then where do we stop? We shut down the buses around the world? And what happens when other countries are affected? Do we take the same measures in that case? So we need to be extremely measured in what we do. And everything we do needs to be based on public health, it needs to be based on evidence, it needs to be based on the principle that there is no such thing as zero risk."

You can watch the full press conference on twitter here, or on pscp.tv here (both links open in a new tab). The WHO's 17 February 2020 update on the COVID19 outbreak is available in .pdf here.

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