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STR has forecast that the hotel industry in Houston will see
overall performance growth between 150% and 350% during Super Bowl
51 weekend.
For the purposes of its projection, STR noted
that each of the last nine Super Bowl host markets experienced
year-on-year RevPAR growth of more than
100%, including Houston in 2004 (+384%).
At the same time, the
larger the host market, the lower the overall RevPAR gain, such as
New York City in 2014 (+115%). The largest year-on-year jump in
RevPAR during the past nine Super Bowl weekends came in the
smallest of the host markets, Indianapolis in 2012 (+1,082%).
“The most difficult aspect in projecting
Houston’s Super Bowl performance is the current state of that
market,” said Claudia Alvarado, STR’s analytics manager. “Lower
demand caused by the oil crisis and rapid supply growth combined
for a 9.1% decrease in occupancy for 2016 - the worst among U.S. Top
25 Markets. Thus, there are two schools of thought on how
performance may fare around the game at NRG Stadium. While it is
possible for the soft performance to extend to the Super Bowl, we
expect a sharp spike in occupancy and room prices.”
During its previous Super Bowl host year in
2004, Houston saw RevPAR gains of 358.3% on Friday, 385.1% on
Saturday and 411.1% on Sunday.
Among major events in 2015, the Super Bowl in
Phoenix produced the largest year-on-year RevPAR increase
(+197.1%) in the three submarkets closest to the event. Next in
line using the same submarket calculation was the NCAA Men’s Final
Four (+101.2% in Indianapolis, the College Football Playoff
National Championship in Dallas (+80.0%) and Wrestlemania 31
(+62.8%) in San Francisco.
“There is no question that major sporting events
are a huge boon for host hotel markets, and the Super Bowl reigns
supreme on the list,” Alvarado said. “Based on previous Super Bowl
performance and other major events from previous years, it would
be reasonable to expect RevPAR growth between 150% and 350% for
Houston during that first weekend in February.”
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