Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Releases 20-Year Market Forecast

According to Bombardier’s new 2017-2036 Market Forecast, the 100 to 150-seat segment will represent 70% of aircraft needs during the period with 6,800 aircraft valued at $580 billion.

This will be followed by the 60 to 100-seat segment with 5,750 deliveries worth $240 billion.

The complete market is seen as 12,550 aircraft worth US$820 billion, based on 2017 list prices.

“The outlook for our markets is strong,” said Fred Cromer, President, Bombardier Commercial Aircraft. “We are the only manufacturer with a solution for any type of business model in the 60- to 150-seat segment, and we are well positioned to capture the value from the exciting opportunities outlined in this Market Forecast. In addition to showing general market dynamics, our forecast focuses on how airlines are changing the way that assets are evaluated. Airlines are shifting their primary metric for network and fleet optimization strategies from ‘cost’ to ‘profit’. With this thinking in the forefront, more airlines are investing in right-sized aircraft that maximize their profits.”

The forecast says small regional aircraft (20-60 seats) segment erosion will have a rippling upgrading effect; large regional aircraft (60-100 seats) will continue to dominate short-haul (up to 500 nm/926 km) routes; and small single-aisle aircraft (100-150 seats) will increase point-to-point flying on short to medium-haul sectors and will allow airlines to fly new and thin routes at a profit. The forecast predicts that 86% of the current fleet in this segment will retire by 2036.

According to the report, North America and Europe will continue as the largest markets for new aircraft, taking delivery of 5,700 aircraft, or 46% of deliveries. It also predicts that there will be strong demand for large regional aircraft from Asia/Pacific owing to growth, and renewal demand from Europe and North America. Key markets for the small  single-aisle aircraft segment are North America, Europe and Greater China.

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