STR Predicts U.S. Hotel Industry to Continue ADR, OR and RevPAR Growth in 2016

According to STR and Tourism Economics’ final forecast for 2015, the U.S. hotel industry is projected to experience continued year-on-year performance increases through 2016.

For the remainder of 2015, the U.S. hotel industry is predicted to report a 1.7% increase in occupancy to 65.5%, a 4.8% rise in ADR to US$120.46 and a 6.5% increase in RevPAR to US$78.90. During that same period, demand growth (+2.8%) is expected to outweigh supply growth (+1.1%).

“Continued record-breaking demand across all chain scales and regions continues to drive RevPAR performance above the long-run average,” said Jan Freitag, STR’s senior VP for lodging insights. “That said, continued high occupancy did not seem to translate into very strong pricing power, and we have thus adjusted our ADR forecast slightly downward to reflect the ongoing reality in the U.S. hotel industry. RevPAR growth continues to be driven by ADR growth.”

Among the Chain Scale segments in the U.S., Independent is expected to report the largest increase in occupancy (+2.3%) during 2015; Upscale is projected to see the greatest rise in ADR (+5.3%); and Independent is expected to report the highest increase in RevPAR (+7.0%).

When looking at the Top 25 Markets, 22 are expected to experience RevPAR increases of 5.0% or higher for 2015. Three of those markets are expected to see RevPAR growth in the range of 10.0% to 15.0%: Nashville, Tennessee; Phoenix, Arizona; and Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida.

For 2016, STR projects the U.S. hotel industry to post a 0.8% increase in occupancy to 66.0%, a 4.8% rise in ADR to US$126.28 and a 5.7% increase in RevPAR to US$83.39.

Also in 2016, demand growth (+2.3%) is once again expected to be higher than supply growth (+1.5%). Demand growth in the U.S. has outpaced supply growth each year dating back to 2010.

“The number of rooms under construction is more than 20% higher than a year ago,” Freitag said. “Those new rooms are driving our supply forecast up to 1.1% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. At the same time, we continue to project healthy demand growth and small occupancy increases across the board.”

Ten of the Top 25 Markets are expected to post RevPAR increases between 5.0% and 10.0% in 2016. The other 15 Top 25 Markets are projected to experience RevPAR growth between 0% and 5.0%.

“The Top 25 Markets will continue to be the disproportionate beneficiary of the healthy performance,” added Freitag. “We project each to grow RevPAR in 2016.”