Air Freight Volumes Flat After Recent Declines

IATA’s data for global air freight markets shows that in August 2015 freight markets stabilized after two months of decline.

Measured in Freight Tonne Kilometers, air cargo volumes rose 0.2% compared to the same month a year ago, a modest improvement on July performance when freight demand contracted by 0.6% year-on-year.

The results varied widely by region. Carriers in the Middle East reported the most significant growth (10.4%) followed by African (2.3%) and European airlines (0.7%). The most significant negative impact on the global performance was by Asia Pacific-based airlines (-1.0%); and those in North America (-3.3%) and Latin America (-7.3%). All regions reported capacity expansions ahead of growth in demand.

"After declines in June and July, signs of a stabilization in air cargo are welcome. But all is not well. Total volumes are down 2% compared to the end of 2014. And some of the key reasons for the earlier weakness – for example, downgraded growth expectations in emerging Asia, and the rebalancing of the Chinese economy toward domestic consumption – are still there. Even though world trade volumes have slightly picked up, the industry will have to work hard to match the strong finish to 2014," said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Asia Pacific carriers saw a fall in FTKs of 1.0% in August when compared to August 2014, and capacity expanded 4.9%. The contraction was less severe than in July (-2.0%), although with the continued drop in export orders for Chinese manufacturing, it is hard to say if the decline has bottomed out.

European carriers reported a rise in demand in August of 0.7% compared to a year ago and capacity rose 3.9%. Recent improvements in manufacturing business activity seem to be finally feeding through to support air freight demand.

North American airlines experienced a decline of 3.3% year-on-year and capacity grew 4.4%. Airlines in the region have experienced a significant fall in FTK volumes since the end of congestion at West Coast ports. More fundamentally any improvement in economic performance does not appear to be driving stronger air freight demand.

Middle Eastern carriers saw the strongest growth with demand expanding by 10.4%, and capacity rising 14.3%. Although some economies in the region have suffered a slowdown in non-oil growth, overall expansion remains robust enough to sustain solid growth in air freight.

Latin American airlines reported a decline in demand of 7.3% year-on-year, and capacity expanded 0.8%. The large fall reflects the continued economic struggles of Brazil and Argentina, while regional trade activity has not created stronger air freight demand.

African carriers experienced growth in demand of 2.3%, and capacity rose by 10.6%. Nigeria and South Africa, the largest economies in the region, have underperformed. Regional trade, however, has held up, and generated increases in air freight volumes.