North America to Need 5,901 New Passenger Aircraft in Next 20 Years

According to the recently released Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF), the U.S. and Canada will require 5,901 new passenger aircraft of more than 100 seats between today and 2030.

In that same time period, there will be a need for 414 new freighter aircraft. This total of 6,315 new aircraft deliveries has an estimated value of $648 billion.

 These region-specific figures were presented in Washington, D.C., on Thursday by Airbus Chief Operating Officer – Customers, John Leahy.

According to the report, by 2030, North America will rank third, behind Asia Pacific and Europe, in world traffic. With a 20-year growth in revenue passenger miles of 3.3%, North America remains one of the world’s strongest markets. In fact, today, and in 2030, domestic U.S. traffic is and will continue to be the largest single air traffic flow region on the planet.

Even with its size and maturity, North American inter-regional traffic has grown by 11% over the last 10 years. Currently, more than 25% of the total world revenue passenger miles are carried on U.S. and Canadian airlines.

While the growth rate of the North American market is less dramatic than in some expanding regions of the world such as China and India, the U.S. and Canada have the highest percentage of existing aircraft that will need to be replaced in the coming decades. Specifically, 41% of the aircraft currently in service in North America will need to be replaced over the next 20 years – greater than in any other region of the world.

North America continues to be a key market for Airbus’ newest aircraft types. For example, in 2011, there were eight new routes for the A380 to the U.S. and Canada. Airports which currently see regular A380 traffic include San Francisco, Los Angeles, Montreal, New York, Washington D.C. and Miami.

From a sales perspective, the A320neo and the A350XWB have made dramatic inroads in the U.S. market. Orders and commitments for the A320neo include U.S. customer airlines:

• American Airlines - 130
• Republic/Frontier - 80
• Spirit Airlines - 45
• JetBlue Airways - 40
• Virgin America - 30

The Airbus Global Market Forecast shows the need for some 1,140 twin-aisle aircraft in North America in the next 20 years, and most of those have yet to be competed for. To date, firm orders for the A350XWB include U.S. customer airlines:

• United Airlines - 25
• US Airways - 22
• Hawaiian Airlines - 6

Overall, the market for passenger aircraft in North America is expected to grow by 66% over the next 20 years. The growth for dedicated freighters in the region is even greater, with a growth rate in the same period of some 80%. Globally, by 2030, some 27,800 new aircraft valued at $3.5 trillion will be required to satisfy the robust future market demand.

With more than 3,100 aircraft sold (including to U.S.-based leasing companies) and a backlog of some 1,000, there are currently more than 1,100 Airbus aircraft in operation throughout the U.S. and Canada.

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