Airlines in Asia and the Pacific will acquire
some 8,000 new passenger and cargo aircraft over the next 20
years, according to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. Valued
at US$1.2 trillion, the requirement represents one third of
predicted global deliveries between now and 2028.
The manufacturer's latest forecast for the
region was presented today at the
Singapore Airshow by John Leahy,
Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers.
In the
passenger market Airbus predicts that traffic in the region will
grow at an average annual rate of 5.9%, while cargo
traffic will increase by 6.3% per year. This compares with
a global average of 4.7% for passenger traffic and 5.2% for air freight. As a result of this growth and continuous
fleet replacement, the region is expected to take delivery of some
880 very large aircraft, 2,570 twin aisle widebodies and 4,560
single aisle aircraft.
The high proportion of
larger aircraft types reflects the concentration of populations
around main urban centres in the region, generating high density
traffic on key intra-regional routes, as well as to capacity
constrained international destinations in Europe and North
America. Meanwhile, demand for single aisle aircraft in the region
is expected to accelerate in the coming years, driven by the
growth of low cost carriers and opening of new routes between
secondary destinations, especially in China, India and South East
Asia.
In the cargo sector, the region will continue
to dominate the global air freight market, with the dedicated
freighter fleet operated by Asia Pacific airlines growing five
times to 1,500 aircraft. While many of these will be converted
from passenger models, Airbus predicts that around 340 new
production freighters will be delivered to the region over the 20
year period. These will be predominantly widebody aircraft and
will represent 40% of expected global demand for new
production freighters.
Presenting the details, John
Leahy said that within 20 years the region would overtake the US
and Europe as the world's largest air transport market, with
Asia Pacific airlines carrying over 30% of global
passenger traffic and around 40% of all air freight.
"To meet this demand larger aircraft will be needed to
ease congestion and do more with less," he said. "This will see
airlines from the region account for over 40% of twin
aisle deliveries and more than 50% of the demand for very
large aircraft, such as the
A380. With a modern, eco-efficient and
comprehensive product line, including the only all-new aircraft in
the very large segment, Airbus will be especially well placed to
meet the needs of airlines in this region."
The
Asia Pacific region is a core market for Airbus accounting for a
quarter of all orders recorded by the company to date. Today there
are some 1,430 Airbus aircraft in service with 66 operators across
the region, with another 1,120 on order with customers for future
delivery. This represents 32% of the company's total
backlog, reflecting the importance of the region as the fastest
growing market for new civil aircraft.
Airbus'
forecast for the Asia Pacific region is derived from the company's
Global Market Forecast, which foresees total demand for almost
25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$3.1
trillion between 2009 and 2028. This includes foresees total
demand for 1,700 very large aircraft, 6,250 twin aisle widebodies
and almost 17,000 single aisle aircraft.
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