PolyU unveils Hong Kong Tourism Demand Forecasting System

The Public Policy Research Institute (PPRI) and the School of Hotel and Tourism Management of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) recently unveiled the Hong Kong Tourism Demand Forecasting System to industry partners at a forum held in PolyU.

Developed by PPRI and the School, the Hong Kong Tourism Demand Forecasting System is a web-based system to forecast the demand for tourism in Hong Kong over the next decade. Demand is measured by tourist arrivals, tourist expenditure, and hotel room nights. Hong Kong resident departures are also forecast. Econometric methods are used to generate the forecasts with adjustments made by experts.

The tourist arrivals and expenditure forecasts are available for 10 major source countries and regions. The outbound tourist departures forecasts are available for 10 major destination countries and regions. The demand forecast for hotel room nights is available by types of tariff, and all the forecasts will be updated on a quarterly basis. “As a member of the tourism industry, government, or tourism academic community,” Prof Haiyan Song, Chair Professor of the School and project leader, remarked “you should find the system very interesting, practical and beneficial.”

Potential subscribers are entitled to a three-month free trial during which they have access to the forecasts on quarterly tourist arrivals to Hong Kong provided by the system and are able to generate their own alternative forecasts on tourist arrivals to Hong Kong online by incorporating different economic growth projections of the influencing factors. Full subscribers will be able to access all the information embedded in the system, including four quarterly reports.

The annual subscription for the forecasting system is US$2,400. Subscribers will enjoy a 50% discount off the subscription fee before the official launch date of 20 February 2008.

“This is another contribution that the School makes to the tourism industry,” said Prof Kaye Chon, Chair Professor and Director of the School. “With the help of the system, tourism practitioners can gain first-hand information of the future trends of tourism in Hong Kong which will be beneficial to business developments and policy making. This is one of the reasons why our School is rated highly.”

The School of Hotel and Tourism Management was ranked fourth among the world’s top hotel and tourism schools based on research and scholarship, according to a study published in the Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research in 2005. With more than 50 academic staff drawn from 18 countries, it is also the only training centre in Asia recognized by the Education and Training Network of the World Tourism Organization.

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