China Becomes First Trillion Dollar Aviation Market in Boeing's Forecast

Boeing has forecast a demand for 6,810 new airplanes in the country over the next 20 years.

Boeing released its annual China Current Market Outlook (CMO) in Beijing, estimating the total value of those new airplanes at $1.025 trillion.

China is the first trillion dollar aviation market in Boeing's forecast.

"As China transitions to a more consumer-based economy, aviation will play a key role in its economic development," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Because travel and transportation are key services, we expect to see passenger traffic grow 6.4% annually in China over the next 20 years."

Boeing predicts China will need 5,110 new single-aisle airplanes, such as the new 737 MAX 8 and current 737-800, through 2035, accounting for 75% of the total new deliveries. Low-cost carriers and full-service airlines have been adding airplanes and expanding new point-to-point services to cater for both leisure and business travel demand from a rising middle class in China and throughout Asia.

Boeing forecasts the widebody fleet will triple in size, requiring 1,560 new airplanes such as the 787, 777 and 777X. This year's forecast reflects a continued shift from very large airplanes to efficient new small and medium widebody airplanes.

China's single-aisle fleet currently accounts for about 18% of global single-aisle aircraft; however, China's widebody fleet only represents approximately 5% of the global widebody segment.

"The continuing expansion of China's middle class, coupled with new visa policies and a wide range of widebody airplanes with new technologies, capabilities and efficiencies, gives us every reason to expect a very bright future for China's long-haul market," said Tinseth.

Driven by China's growing e-commerce business – already the largest in the world – air cargo is expected to become a key driver for the continuous growth of aviation in China, with the need for 180 new freighters and 410 converted freighters.

Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of $5.9 trillion for 39,620 new commercial airplanes to be delivered during the next 20 years.

Meanwhile, China has a component role on every current Boeing commercial airplane model – the Next-Generation 737, 747, 767, 777, as well as the 787 Dreamliner. Over 9,000 Boeing airplanes fly throughout the world with integrated China-built parts and assemblies.

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