Positive 2012 RevPAR Forecast for Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney

STR Global is forecasting positive RevPAR growth across four key Asian markets in 2012.

RevPAR growth is expected to be mainly driven by increasing ADR, following strong occupancy performances in Singapore, Hong Kong and Sydney during 2011. The markets posted occupancy of more than 80% for the year, while Beijing achieved just less than 70%.

Supply is expected to grow between 1.1% and 2.5% across the four cities, with demand predicted to increase between 1.7% and 3.8%.

Following strong demand growth during 2010 (+22.8%) and 2011 (6.2%), Singapore is expected to see the metric increase at a rate less than supply during 2012. The imbalance is forecast to lead to an occupancy decrease of 0.6% for the year.

In Beijing, occupancy growth and ADR growth (+4.5% to CNY 677.76) is expected to support RevPAR growth between 5.0% and 7.0% in 2012.

Hong Kong is predicted to see the largest supply increase (+2.5%) of the four cities, which is expected to be offset by a 3% demand increase that will drive growth in occupancy, ADR and RevPAR.

Sydney is forecast to see the smallest supply increase, resulting in moderate occupancy (+1.2%) and ADR (+2.6%) growth.

For the 12 months through January 2012, Hong Kong reached occupancy of 84.5%, followed by Singapore (84.1%), Sydney (82.1%) and Beijing (67.9%), where 12-month average occupancy levels were similar to the levels recorded during the pre-Olympics period in March 2008 (67.9%).

"Our forecast indicates that 2012 will be another positive year with demand growing in Beijing (+3.8%), Hong Kong (+3.0%), Singapore (+1.7%) and Sydney (+2.3%). This, coupled with limited new supply, will benefit RevPAR," said Elizabeth Randall, managing director at STR Global. "With high demand and corresponding occupancy levels, we estimate average room rates to pick up."

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